Uncertainties in adaptation pathways planning: Insights from diverse international case studies

Abstract

Adaptation Pathways are receiving increased attention as a method to navigate future climate risks under conditions of deep uncertainty. Despite their promise to uncertainty management, questions remain about how uncertainty is conceptualized and addressed in practice. While previous reviews have examined the development and application of adaptation pathways, less attention has been paid to how different types of uncertainty are managed within pathways processes. To address this gap, we systematically review 22 empirical adaptation pathways applications using the uncertainty framework of Dewulf and Biesbroek (2018) to map how uncertainties and uncertainty-management strategies are addressed across pathways processes. Analysis of the cases revealed that while researchers adopt adaptive planning mainly to address the fundamental uncertainties of future climate change itself, most strategies target epistemic uncertainty through information gathering, knowledge generation, and stakeholder engagement. In contrast, strategies addressing ontological uncertainty were largely confined to biophysical futures, while strategic and institutional uncertainties received limited attention despite their importance in shaping which adaptation pathways are feasible, acceptable, and implementable. Furthermore, limited reporting of methodological choices and uncertainty-management strategies restricted opportunities for cross-case learning and evaluation of effectiveness. We conclude that advancing adaptation pathways practice requires greater engagement with strategic, institutional, and ontological uncertainties, alongside more transparent reporting and systematic evaluation, to strengthen adaptation pathways as a framework for navigating an evolving adaptation solution space under deep uncertainty.