LAB #4064 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, n=822) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 6-confirmation filter would have eliminated the two `wkjudas` entries (GBPUSD LONG and USDJPY SHORT) that both closed as losses, and likely the NZDUSD SHORT (still open) if it had fewer than 6 confirmations at entry. That removes 2–3 losing trades from the 10 shown, which alone would shift the live win rate from ~20% (2 wins/10) to ~33% (2 wins/7–8) — directionally consistent with your backtest but with a much smaller sample. The `rizzy5m` and `rizzy7m` trades appear unaffected, so the PnL delta is positive but modest — roughly +0.5R to +1.0R over this window, not the +5.7pp headline. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter should reduce low-conviction entries that fire before price structure confirms, likely lifting win rate by 3–6pp as your backtest suggests — but the ris Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com