Prioritizing EMU procurement attributes in Urban rail systems: A comparative DEMATEL-ANP and PF-DEMATEL-ANP application to the Belgrade railway node

Abstract

The urban-suburban railway system of Belgrade currently accounts for a relatively small share of passenger transport in the metropolitan area and is undergoing substantial modernization from both technological and technical perspectives. This comprehensive effort includes not only infrastructure enhancements but also the renewal of the electric multiple unit (EMU) fleet. Defining procurement requirements for new EMUs is a complex decision-making task involving numerous interdependent and potentially conflicting attributes. To support this process, this paper applies two integrated methods: the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory combined with the Analytic Network Process (DEMATEL-ANP), and its advanced variant, picture fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP (PF-DEMATEL-ANP). The two approaches are used to identify and compare the relative importance and causal interdependencies of attributes relevant to EMU fleet renewal. Both approaches identify reliability- and availability-related attributes as the most influential factors in prioritizing EMU procurement requirements. The results of the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis indicate a high level of stability in the resulting weights and rankings. The goal of this paper is to provide a clear and practical decision-support framework that helps railway managers and policy makers prioritize the most critical attributes relevant to the EMU procurement process, thereby supporting the subsequent evaluation of specific alternatives.