Pengaruh Belanja Modal, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2020–2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of capital expenditure, economic growth, and the Human Development Index (HDI) on poverty levels in regencies and municipalities across North Sumatra Province during the 2020–2024 period. This study employs a quantitative approach using panel data covering 33 regencies and municipalities over five years of observation. The data are analyzed using panel data regression with the assistance of EViews software. Model selection is conducted through the Chow test and the Hausman test, with the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) selected as the estimation model. The results show that, partially, capital expenditure and economic growth have no statistically significant effect on poverty levels, while the HDI has a negative and statistically significant effect on poverty levels. Simultaneously, the three independent variables have a statistically significant effect on poverty levels. The Adjusted R-squared value of 98.50% indicates that the model explains most of the variation in poverty levels, while the remaining variation is explained by other factors outside the research model. These findings highlight the importance of improving the quality of human development in supporting poverty alleviation efforts in North Sumatra Province. Therefore, local governments need to strengthen policies that support improvements in education quality, healthcare, and living standards, while ensuring that capital expenditure allocations and economic growth generate more equitable benefits for the community.