Hydro-Heritage Prioritization Across a City–Oasis–Wadi System: Sustainable Conservation of Shibam, Yemen

Abstract

Sustainable conservation of earthen heritage in arid wadis requires attention to environmental processes extending beyond protected urban cores. This study developed an uncertainty-aware, landscape-scale framework for Shibam, Yemen, treating the historic city, oasis landscape, drainage system, and wadi as a coupled system. Across an 807.03 ha analytical landscape on a 30 m grid, terrain-derived Hydrological Exposure (H) and Heritage Concentration–Proximity (U) were integrated into a relative Hydro-Heritage Conservation Priority surface (P), while Geomorphological Context (G) was retained for interpretation. Hydrological preprocessing incorporated upstream contributing terrain before the outputs were extracted to the analytical landscape. The historic core had lower mean H than the periphery (0.439 versus 0.569) but markedly higher U, producing higher mean P (0.591 versus 0.337). H showed partial correspondence with the 2008 DLR affected-area footprint (ROC-AUC = 0.628), while P showed lower correspondence (0.609), consistent with their different analytical roles. Joint sensitivity testing indicated broad rank stability (Spearman’s ρ = 0.885–1.000), although drainage-network definition remained influential. Threshold-defined vegetation was more extensive in later observations than in 2000, whereas CHIRPS poorly reproduced Seyoun annual extremes. The framework supports differentiated field verification, preventive conservation, and adaptive monitoring rather than predictive flood-risk modeling.