Associations Between Early Warning Message Completeness, Reception Mode, and Protective Action Across Four At-Risk Communities in Ethiopia and South Africa

Abstract

Abstract Despite the expansion of early warning systems, the content and delivery of early warning messages remain understudied in resource-constrained settings. This mixed-methods cross-sectional survey examined early warning message (EWM) awareness, completeness, reception mode, and reported responses among 535 respondents in four purposively selected forest-adjacent communities: Desa and Yayu in Ethiopia, and Knysna and Phiring in South Africa. We assessed the presence of six message components, including timing, location, magnitude, expected impact, probability, and recommended response, and compared message completeness across sites and reception modes. Awareness and message completeness were generally higher in the sampled Ethiopian sites (Desa and Yayu), where direct communication was more common, than in the sampled South African sites (Knysna and Phiring). Direct recipients reported higher completeness scores than indirect-only recipients ( M = 4.0 versus 2.1; Mann-Whitney U = 44,938, p < 0.001, r = 0.37). Direct recipients were more likely than indirect-only recipients to report proactive responses (79.0% versus 69.1%; χ 2 (1) = 6.5, p = 0.011, Cramér’s V = 0.11). Because reception mode was strongly patterned by site and the sites were purposively selected, the associations should not be interpreted causally or generalized to either country as a whole. The findings suggest that people-centered dissemination and messages explaining both recommended action and personal relevance may strengthen warning actionability in comparable settings. These findings may inform the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All (EW4All) efforts to improve the completeness and personal relevance of warning messages.