Sunflower Sector Performance in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria During 2005–2024: A Comparative Assessment of Production, Climate, Markets, and Trade

Abstract

Assessing the performance of a sunflower sector requires more than simply tracking production volumes. How the sector performs over time also depends on yield stability, climate exposure, market adjustment, and the way trade is structured. This study provides an integrated overview of the sunflower sectors in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria over 2005–2024, focusing on their long-term performance and adjustment patterns. The analysis draws on harmonised data on crop production, growing-season climate, producer prices, and international trade. To capture these different dimensions, we combine area–yield decomposition, detrended instability measures, crop-area-weighted climate exposure, two-way fixed-effects models, and descriptive trade indicators within a non-compensatory analytical framework. Romania recorded the highest mean production (2.21 million t) and the greatest detrended yield instability (18.1%), whereas Hungary achieved the highest mean yield (2.61 t ha−1) and the lowest yield instability (8.2%). Across 57 annual country transitions, yield changes made a larger mean absolute contribution to production variation (313,628 t) than changes in area (116,954 t). In pooled two-way fixed-effects models, higher temperature anomalies were linked to lower yields, while a more favourable climatic water balance was linked to higher yields. A 1% rise in production was associated with a 0.31% fall in the real producer-price index, whereas lagged production coefficients were not statistically different from zero. Bulgaria had the highest mean net raw-seed export intensity (0.48), while Hungary recorded the highest processed-export share (0.60). These results identify areas for country-specific assessment of climate risk management, market adjustment, logistics, and processing economics rather than demonstrating the effectiveness of particular policy interventions. The framework reveals distinct national patterns without treating them as a resilience ranking or as direct evidence of domestic value added.