Evaluating clean energy strategies for national carbon neutrality: An interdisciplinary policy-focused decision framework

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate and prioritize clean energy strategies to support Türkiye's national carbon neutrality goals. Achieving carbon neutrality requires adopting clean technologies and effective environmental policy tools. This study presents a novel multi-criteria decision-making context that combines the Picture Fuzzy Best-Worst Method (PiF-BWM) and Picture Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (PiF-TOPSIS) to evaluate and prioritize renewable energy strategies under uncertainty systematically. The empirical application focuses on Türkiye and is based on the evaluations of nine experts. Using Türkiye as the test bed, we assess alternatives such as climate-resilient low-carbon development plans, policy frameworks for low-carbon fuels, large-scale and distributed renewables, green jobs programs, and building electrification via heat pumps. Criteria span environmental impact, cost and financial viability, technological feasibility, socioeconomic effects, resilience, energy efficiency, energy security, and policy alignment. The methodology first applies PiF-BWM to determine the criteria weights, and then uses PiF-TOPSIS to rank the alternative strategies. Results show that environmentally effective and policy-enabled strategies deliver the highest urban decarbonization benefits, while building-focused electrification provides targeted gains when integrated with local grid constraints and building codes. The findings further indicate that climate-resilient low-carbon development plans and policy frameworks for low-carbon fuels are the most suitable strategic options, whereas heat pump-based building electrification receives the lowest score among the evaluated alternatives. This study positions energy as an instrument for sustainable development by foregrounding affordability, access, equity, and institutional capacity in strategy selection. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that governments should prioritize policy-supported and resilience-oriented clean energy pathways while aligning investment decisions with affordability, implementation capacity, and long-term sustainability goals. The policy-oriented framework supports sustainable development goal (SDG) 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and is tailored to the realities of developing-country contexts.