The Threads that Fray: Wedge strategies and Chinese influence operations in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

Influence operations provide adversaries with a unique vector to weaken alliances and undermine their internal cohesion. Alliances rely on shared interests, values, and identities to sustain themselves and give their commitments credibility. However, social media affords alliance opponents a new avenue to erode these links via false, misleading, and inflammatory information. This paper investigates these influence operations and how they can marry wedge strategies with cyber subversion. As an empirical test of plausibility, it explores Chinese influence operations on Western social media platforms and their potential to challenge the U.S. security architecture in the Indo-Pacific with a focus on Australia and the Philippines. Besides promoting a positive case for China, Beijing’s operations have also used distinct messages to undermine faith in the U.S. Moreover, as governments in both Canberra and Manila hardened their stance toward Beijing, China’s influence operations have also included direct interference in their domestic politics.