Staged arrangement of the population process associated with the "Great Replacement": a verification against French official statistics (INSEE, DGEF, Ined)

Abstract

This work arranges the population process associated with the "Great Replacement" into five stages (Arrival, Settlement, Visibility, Population-engine reversal, National replacement complete) and tests each stage against French official statistics (INSEE, DGEF, Ined; retrieved 2026-10-11). The stage table is by the author and is not Renaud Camus's own stage table. Only proxies are used: country of birth, parents' country of birth and nationality. Ethnicity is not measured, and French official statistics do not hold it. Each verdict follows only from the stage's support value, refutation value and observed value. Results: Stages 1-3 supported; Stage 4 withheld (not decidable with current statistics); Stage 5 not supported at present because not yet reached. The support and refutation values were set after part of the data had been seen and were not pre-registered. Files: (1) the main text with an appendix of the verification results; (2) an Excel workbook with the numerator, denominator, source and a recomputation check for each value (977 formulas; all recomputable values match, 5 published ratios are entered as published). Known limits are disclosed in the appendix, including: birth counts by second-generation parents are not in public statistics; the definition of INDLNM code 3 is unconfirmed; and the primary source for 384,230 first residence permits was not found (press only). Note on the main text: on page 3 the URL 2381755 is attached to the title "Population immigrée et étrangère en France" and to the 11.6% share, which are on 2381757; the figures are correct and only the URL is wrong. License: CC BY-NC 4.0 for this work. Statistics and quotations remain under their original sources' terms.