Universal Endogenous Rate of Emergence of the Previously Unthinkable

Abstract

A universal law is established: in any environment with a normalized distribution of known states, the endogenous rate of emergence of the previously unthinkable is bounded above by . The bound is attained when and does not depend on the shape of the distribution, the number of known states, or the nature of the system. A distinction between unthinkable and thinkable novelty is introduced, defining the domain of applicability of the law. A practical consequence is shown: justified reservation of resources for endogenous uncertainty via the formula . Critique and discussion need not await the full paper: comments, objections, and counterarguments are welcome now. The author undertakes to read all letters received at the indicated address and to take substantive remarks into account in preparing the full version.