LAB #3986 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.3% (+0.8pp, n=1452) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have blocked the 3 trades opened during that phase (NZDUSD SHORT 2026-09-01, AUDUSD SHORT 2026-08-27, NZDUSD SHORT 2026-08-27). Of those, one is still open (unknown outcome), one was a loss, and one was rejected — so blocking them would have removed at least one confirmed loss and one unresolved position. The net PnL delta is roughly neutral-to-slightly positive, but the sample is too small to attribute the +0.8pp win-rate improvement to this filter alone. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter would likely reduce trade frequency by ~10–15% (based on quarterly phase distribution) while modestly improving win rate if the backtest signal is real. The risk is overfitting to a single quarter's regime — MANIPULATION Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com