The Topos of Contested Price and Energy Security: A Sheaf-Theoretic Analysis of Bangladesh and the 2026 Hormuz Disruption

Abstract

This paper provides a sheaf-theoretic and topos-theoretic analysis of global energy market fractures, focusing on the empirical case of Bangladesh during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption. Classical economic models treat energy markets as unified probability spaces governed by universal benchmark prices. However, kinetic blockades dismantle this continuous topology, fragmenting markets into localized delivery contexts where price and availability decouple. By formulating delivery contexts as objects in a Grothendieck site, this study demonstrates that price operates as a presheaf while physical availability acts as a predicate in the subobject classifier. Utilizing the Abramsky-Brandenburger framework for contextuality, we show that market fracture is mathematically equivalent to the non-existence of a global section over empirical models. Applied to Bangladesh's import-dependent energy identity, the analysis illustrates how structural declines in domestic natural gas reserves amplified foreign exchange exposure and fiscal subsidy burdens under Qatari LNG force majeure declarations. To resolve these failures, we outline a Continuous Correction protocol grounded in effective mathematical descent, providing import-dependent states with a systematic contractual mechanism to restore market operability and supply security.