“Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka terhadap Kemiskinan melalui Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Path Analysis”

Abstract

Poverty remains an important development issue that is influenced by fiscal capacity, labor market conditions, and economic performance. This study aims to analyze the effect of Regional Original Revenue (PAD) and Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) on poverty through economic growth in Indonesia using a path analysis approach. This study uses secondary panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia and employs two structural equations to examine direct and indirect relationships among the variables. The analysis is conducted using panel data regression and the Sobel test to assess the mediating role of economic growth. The results show that PAD and TPT have negative but insignificant effects on economic growth. Meanwhile, PAD and TPT have negative and significant effects on poverty, while economic growth has a positive but insignificant effect on poverty. The Sobel test indicates that economic growth does not significantly mediate the effects of PAD or TPT on poverty. These findings suggest that the effects of PAD and TPT on poverty are more evident through direct relationships rather than through economic growth as an intervening variable.