Global climatic suitability and future distribution of Hypsipyla grandella : Implications for Meliaceae under climate change

Abstract

Abstract Hypsipyla grandella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is one of the main pests of species in the Meliaceae family, and predicting areas of climatic suitability for this species is important for planning pest management strategies and implementing phytosanitary policies. This study aimed to determine the areas of climatic suitability for H. grandella worldwide, under current conditions and future climate change scenarios A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to estimate the global climatic suitability of H. grandella based on occurrence records and climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation. Climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the most influential factors in determining the species' environmental suitability. The model showed a high correspondence between occurrence records and areas classified as highly suitable, concentrated mainly in Central America, the Caribbean and tropical South America. Extensive areas with high suitability were also identified in regions where the species has no confirmed records, including parts of tropical Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania, indicating a potential risk of expansion if introduction events occur. Projections indicate that areas with ecological and climatic suitability for H. grandella tend to increase under future climate change scenarios, with important implications for forestry and biosecurity policies.