LAB #3957 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.2pp, n=109) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter to the current 10-trade window would have blocked the two NZDUSD SHORTs (wkjudas and rizzy5m) and the USDCHF LONG — all three were losses or open/rejected. It would also have blocked the EURJPY LONG (loss) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT (win) depending on exact phase timestamps. Net effect: roughly 3-4 losing trades removed, 1 winning trade possibly removed — expected win-rate improvement from ~40% (4/10) to ~50-60% (3-4/6-7), with PnL delta positive but modest given the small sample. The single open NZDUSD SHORT would have been avoided, reducing current drawdown risk. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a DISTRIBUTION-phase filter likely reduces trade frequency by 20-35% while improving win rate — but the +5.2pp backtest gain (n=109) is within noise for Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com