Citizen-level democratic resilience: Public democratic preference, evaluation of democracy, and quality of governance in Indonesia

Abstract

As in many other democracies, Indonesian democracy has been backsliding for more than a decade, yet it has not fully broken down. Does this mean that Indonesian democracy is still resilient? This article examines this puzzle through the lens of citizen-level democratic resilience, measured across five waves of the Asian Barometer surveys between 2011 and 2025. The article operationalizes democratic resilience through democratic legitimacy and democratic commitment (combined as public democratic preference), predicted by an evaluation of democratic performance and quality of governance. Multiple linear regressions are conducted for each wave, supplemented by qualitative analysis of four major episodes of democratic attacks. The results show that democratic resilience still exists at the citizen level but is increasingly vulnerable and deteriorating. If undemocratic attempts continue, the likelihood of falling under an authoritarian regime or full autocracy increases.