LAB #3864 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 45.5% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 45.5% (+13.0pp, n=134) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION filter would have blocked 6 of the 10 live trades (all rizzy5m/7m entries on 2026-08-24 through 08-27, since those dates fall outside the quarterly accumulation phase). The surviving trades (wkjudas on 08-25) include one WIN and one LOSS, so the win rate would shift from 3/10 (30%) to 1/2 (50%) — a superficial improvement but with a tiny sample. PnL delta is ambiguous: the blocked trades include 2 wins and 4 losses, so you'd avoid 2 losses but also forfeit 2 wins; net PnL change is roughly neutral to slightly positive, but not the +13pp claimed in backtest. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filter will reduce trade frequency by ~60-70% (only trading during accumulation quarters), which could improve win rate per trade but drastically cut total PnL if the str Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com