Gegenwartsdominanz und Wirkungsdefizite in der deutschen Haushaltspolitik – Diagnose und Reformoptionen

Abstract

Abstract Despite a historic expansion of borrowing capacity through the 2025 debt brake reform and the new 500 billion euro special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality (SVIK), the future orientation of Germany’s core federal budget continues to decline. This article identifies two fundamental challenges: first, the crowding-out of future-oriented expenditure by present-oriented spending in the core budget as respective items are shifted from the core budget into temporary special funds; second, a still incomplete performance orientation, notwithstanding significant recent progress, as visible in the first SVIK monitoring report. Building on this diagnosis and reform momentum, the article proposes independent monitoring of additionality, a future-orientation bonus within federal supplementary grants, a binding link between programme funding and evaluation, and a Länder ranking based on the future quota revitalizing Article 91d of the Basic Law. The common thread is to realign the incentives of political actors and voters more towards the long term.