Demographic Decline and Labour-Market Mismatch in Northern Hungary: A Secondary-Data Synthesis

Abstract

Northern Hungary has experienced prolonged population decline alongside persistent labour-market disadvantage since the post-socialist transition. This article examines how demographic contraction, selective migration and spatially uneven access to employment combine to produce the apparently contradictory coexistence of labour shortages and unemployment. The study uses a structured secondary analysis of official Hungarian statistics, European and OECD reports, and peer-reviewed regional research published up to 2024. The evidence indicates that the region's difficulty is not simply a declining number of residents. Ageing, the loss of working-age and qualified people, differences between urban centres and peripheral settlements, and weak correspondence between available workers and available jobs jointly reduce the effective labour supply. In 2023, Northern Hungary's employment rate for people aged 15-64 remained below the national rate, while its unemployment rate remained higher. Earlier crisis periods also had unusually persistent regional effects. Migration reinforces these pressures because it is selective, yet migration intention cannot be explained by regional disadvantage alone; education, language knowledge, family circumstances, transport, housing and perceived career opportunities matter as well. The article concludes that population retention requires coordinated measures rather than a single employment subsidy: competitive job quality, accessible vocational and adult learning, transport and housing support, employer participation in skill formation, and territorially differentiated public services. The findings provide an analytical basis for subsequent primary research among young people and employers in the region.