Scale or market composition? Short-term rentals and residential rents in Spain

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to examine whether short-term rental (STR) pressure is associated with residential rent growth uniformly across Spanish housing markets or whether the relationship depends on market composition and spatial scale. Design/methodology/approach The author combines Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) rental-price indices with official tourist-dwelling statistics scaled by fixed 2021 Census housing stocks. Balanced panels cover 701 municipalities and 367 districts in 48 Spanish cities during 2020–2024. Matched-city models hold composition fixed; preferred district models use first differences, city-by-year fixed effects and pre-existing rent trajectories. Findings The municipality-level association is fragile to the documented 2024 Andalusian revision and prior rent trends. Restricting the municipality analysis to the same 48 cities yields a positive association. Within cities, the preferred pretrend-controlled estimate is 0.364% per one percentage point larger annual increase in STR pressure (CR2 p = 0.060; wild-Webb p = 0.068). Identification is highly concentrated. Research limitations/implications The observational design cannot rule out time-varying district-level confounding, reverse causality or spatial spillovers. District evidence applies to provincial capitals and autonomous cities, not specialised resort markets. Practical implications The findings caution against assuming a single national STR–housing relationship. Monitoring and policy evaluation should consider market composition and within-city variation in STR pressure. Originality/value The study provides a Spain-wide comparison using harmonised official data and a common stock-scaled exposure concept, separating market composition from geographical scale and identifying variation.