Macroeconomic determinants of environmental degradation in Africa: A STIRPAT model analysis

Abstract

Environmental pressure in Africa is shaped by economic expansion, demographic scale and the energy required to sustain production, yet these relationships are difficult to identify when countries are exposed to common shocks and respond heterogeneously. This study revisits the macroeconomic determinants of environmental degradation within an extended STIRPAT framework for 37 African countries over 2000–2024, using ecological footprint per capita and total CO₂ emissions as complementary outcomes. Cross-sectional dependence and second-generation unit-root diagnostics motivate heterogeneous common-factor estimators. Static common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) is used as the main specification, augmented mean group (AMG) as a robustness estimator, and a parsimonious dynamic CCE model is estimated for CO₂. For ecological footprint, average CCEMG coefficients are imprecisely estimated and the population effect is sensitive to the estimator. For CO₂, population and energy intensity are positive and statistically significant in CCEMG and remain positive in AMG. Income is positive in AMG but only marginally significant in CCEMG, while the squared income term is insignificant throughout. The evidence therefore does not support a robust Environmental Kuznets Curve. Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests indicate predictive relationships among the core STIRPAT variables but are not interpreted as structural causality. The results point to energy efficiency and low-carbon infrastructure as more defensible policy levers than reliance on an automatic environmental payoff from income growth.