An Integrated Geospatial and Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in North-western Nigeria Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Abstract

Flood disasters have become increasingly frequent and severe in Nigeria, driven by a combination of climatic shifts and anthropogenic pressures. This research paper assesses flood risk vulnerability across the seven states of the Northwest geopolitical zone (Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, and Kaduna). Utilising a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study evaluates physical hazards—such as elevation, slope, and drainage density—alongside the vulnerability of the population determined by their exposure. The findings indicate that Kebbi and Sokoto have the highest flood hazard, largely due to their low-lying floodplains and proximity to major rivers. When exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability are considered, 27.75% of the region is classified as having very high flood risk, primarily across nine LGAs in Kebbi, two in Zamfara, and one in Sokoto. High flood risk is concentrated mainly in Kebbi (15 LGAs), Sokoto (19 LGAs), Kano (4 LGAs), and Jigawa (3 LGAs).