Carbon decoupling and heterogeneous emission associations in China’s low carbon pilot cities

Abstract

As China advances its dual-carbon agenda, low-carbon pilot cities have become important policy laboratories for reconciling economic growth with carbon reduction. Using panel data for 61 Chinese low-carbon city pilots from 2010 to 2020, this study combines the Tapio decoupling model with an extended STIRPAT model to examine the evolution of the economic growth–carbon emissions nexus, classify cities according to their carbon–economic trajectories, and examine heterogeneous emission-related associations across city types and regions. The findings show that these pilot cities shifted overall from weak to strong decoupling during 2010–2020, although marked regional disparities remained. Emission-related associations also differ across city types. Urbanization rate and R&D intensity show stronger associations with emissions in low-carbon mature cities. In contrast, population size, industrial structure, and energy structure are more strongly associated with total emissions in low-carbon growth cities, where industrial structure also exhibits a positive association with per-capita emissions. In addition, distinct regional decarbonization patterns are observed across eastern, central, and western China, underscoring the need for differentiated regional strategies. These findings provide a basis for targeted urban low-carbon policies and stronger regional coordination toward China’s dual-carbon goals.