Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry: A Critical Review of Accounting Methods, Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Driving Factors, and Projection

Abstract

The construction industry is one of the largest sources of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and most of its carbon is embodied in upstream materials such as cement and steel. Estimates rest on three accounting frameworks, the emission-factor (EF), input-output (IO) and material-flow methods, which count different components, so their totals are not interchangeable. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines, we screened 2746 Web of Science records published between 2016 and 2026. We synthesized 136 research articles, 116 of them analyzing China, with 15 reviews used for positioning across four strands, namely accounting, spatiotemporal characteristics, driving factors and projection, comparing their dominant methods. The accounting frameworks are complementary. Their qualitative findings agree, while the numerical differences between them have not been measured. The accounting choice and the analytical method applied afterwards nevertheless condition reported levels, driver magnitudes and the projected peak year, which ranges from 2025 to 2045. The statistics they rest on can contain errors and discontinuities, which recent data-fusion methods can identify, assess and, where justified, reconstruct. We conclude with an integrative framework of reconciliation, diagnosis, attribution and projection, and a research agenda for heterogeneity-aware, supply-chain-resolved analysis.