Does public transport fare discount policy affect travel choices of the elderly? An empirical study based on Chongqing, China

Abstract

As population aging accelerates, public transport fare discounts have become a crucial tool for cities to address the mobility needs of the elderly. This study aims to optimize such policies by examining the psychological decision-making process of elderly bus users, using survey data from Chongqing, China, collected in 2022 ( N = 556) and validated with a second cross-sectional survey conducted in 2026 ( N = 174). It investigates how socioeconomic characteristics and subjective attitudes influence travel decisions under different discount scenarios. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is applied to confirm the impact paths of elderly transit policy acceptance, bus travel dependency, and discount schemes on travel mode choice. In addition, Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) are employed to explore the non-linear interactions among individual attributes and subjective attitudes in the context of varying discount scenarios. The results reveal that higher discount rates significantly encourage elderly individuals to choose public transport. Bus travel dependency emerges as the most robust predictor of mode choice, validated across both survey waves. The older elderly (over 75 years) show higher sensitivity to discounts despite lower baseline travel willingness. Furthermore, discount policies have a stronger incentive effect on groups with non-rigid travel demands. The findings suggest that tailored discount strategies, combined with enhanced service quality and targeted policy promotion, can increase public transport use among the elderly. Such refinements are expected to improve social participation, enhance quality of life, and provide empirical guidance for optimizing elderly bus fare discount policies.