Continuous Correction, Not Crisis Redesign: Contractual Confidence, Alternatives, and Regional Grids for Import-Dependent States after 2026

Abstract

The claim of this paper is narrow. The 2026 disruption of the Strait of Hormuz did not reveal a new energy geography so much as it priced one that import-dependent states had already described and not yet contracted for. Panic, which treats the episode as a warrant to redesign the fuel mix in a season, and inertia, which treats the episode as weather, are both errors. The deliverable is a correction protocol: examine the channel that actually transmitted the shock, name the clause that failed, adjust it, add one alternative that can deliver a volume on a timetable, fund the grid or storage increment that absorbs the next shock, and repeat. KSCCN discussion paper for the Osmani Centre for Peace and Security Studies roundtable on geostrategic shifts and energy security, Army Golf Club, Dhaka, 3 October 2026. Dr. Syed Muntasir Mamun, ORCID 0000-0001-6845-2853. Views are the author's.