Resistance as climate change mitigation: Contested emissions from Japan's anti-coal movement

Abstract

Grassroots resistance increasingly shapes sustainability transformations, yet its implications for climate change mitigation remain difficult to identify and quantify. This paper introduces the concept of ‘contested emissions’ to make visible the climate significance of such struggles and develops an operational framework for estimating the emissions associated with carbon-intensive projects subject to social contestation. Contested emissions refer to the projected greenhouse gas emissions from projects opposed by local communities, activists, or social movements, including struggles that are not primarily framed around climate change. We distinguish four types of contested emissions: those associated with project cancellations, delays in operation, shortened operational lifespans, and constraints on fossil-fuel markets. We apply the framework to coal-related conflicts in Japan using data from the Environmental Justice Atlas, Global Energy Monitor, and local environmental organisations. We estimate that the opposition has been associated with the cancellation of projects representing approximately 49 million tonnes (Mt) of annual CO₂ emissions, while projects representing a further 2.4 Mt. have been delayed and 2.4 Mt. are associated with reduced operational lifespans. In addition, projects representing approximately 258 Mt. of annual CO2 emissions have been subject to continuing contestation associated with market constraints. Taken together, these resistances are associated with projects representing emissions equivalent to 26.5% of Japan's 2021 annual greenhouse gas emissions. The contested emissions framework therefore broadens conventional understandings of climate action by showing how struggles over pollution, health, livelihoods, and environmental justice can also shape carbon-intensive development and emissions trajectories.