An integrated Weibull–multi-criteria framework for the techno-economic assessment of green hydrogen: application to alkaline and PEM electrolysers across operational and emerging sites

Abstract

An international comparative assessment of green hydrogen production is conducted to examine the influence of energy mix and electrolyser technology. Probabilistic wind modelling, industrial techno-economic optimisation, and multicriteria decision-making are integrated to identify optimal production sites. Wind-only, PV-only, and Wind + PV scenarios are evaluated across fourteen international locations using AEL and PEM electrolysers. Results show that performance is primarily driven by renewable-energy configuration, while electrolyser suitability depends on site and scenario. Wind + PV achieves the most favourable techno-economic performance, with LCOH ranging from 2.2 to 5.5 $/kg. PV-only strongly depends on solar irradiation: with AEL, ten sites fall within IRENA's competitive range (2.80–6.40 $/kg), whereas Canada, Germany, Denmark, and Norway exceed 8 $/kg, reaching 11.50 $/kg. FUCOM–CRITIC–CoCoSo rankings remain stable across λ values, with Morocco, Argentina, Denmark, and Saudi Arabia consistently ranking highly. Stack degradation increases LCOH by 9.6–30.2%. • Weibull-HOMER Pro-FUCOM-CRITIC-CoCoSo framework for 14 green hydrogen sites. • Hybrid wind + PV with alkaline electrolysis gives the lowest LCOH: 2.2-5.5 $/kg. • Wind + PV cuts hydrogen storage from 600 to 900 t to below 100 t at most sites. • Stack degradation raises LCOH by 9.6-30.2% but leaves site ranking unchanged. • Energy scenario drives performance more than the electrolyser technology.