GTMEC-F1.2: Gravitational–Thermal Matter–Energy Confinement Hypothesis

Abstract

The Gravitational–Thermal Matter–Energy Confinement Hypothesis (GTMEC) is a testable framework for studying whether the joint state of dark-matter gravitational confinement and baryonic radiative cooling carries temporally ordered predictive information about later baryonic concentration, structural segregation, and changes in the baryonic contribution to the local gravitational potential. The framework remains entirely within standard gravity, standard gas thermodynamics, collisionless dark-matter dynamics, and baryonic backreaction. It does not modify general relativity, introduce a fifth force, assume microscopic thermal coupling between dark matter and baryons, or treat dark matter as a coolant. Two dimensionless state variables form the core of the framework: a dark-matter confinement parameter comparing escape speed with gas temperature, and a cooling-efficiency parameter comparing free-fall and radiative cooling times. These are supplemented by orbital-state measures, operational potential-share variables, and optional cosmic-web connectivity diagnostics. The primary scientific question is whether the joint confinement–cooling state measured at time t provides incremental predictive information about later baryonic concentration beyond standard controls, additive effects, primitive-variable nonlinearities, persistence, halo identity, feedback, mergers, metallicity, accretion, and environment. The framework specifies preregistered endpoints, grouped cross-validation, matched-potential experiments, primitive-variable null models, independent-suite transfer, backreaction decomposition, placebo time-order tests, resolution checks, and explicit falsification criteria. Independent Stage-0 checks reported in the manuscript support the algebraic consistency of the confinement measure, the gravitational-energy bookkeeping, and the relationship of the cooling variable to established spherical-infall stability measures. These checks do not constitute a detection of the distinctive GTMEC interaction. The primary GTMEC interaction remains open and unconfirmed until the frozen, time-resolved halo-level test is carried out on common simulation datasets.