COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN CIS COUNTRIES

Abstract

This article presents a comparative statistical analysis of demographic processes in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and assesses their development prospects for the period up to 2030–2040. The study examines fertility, mortality, natural population change, migration, and the age-sex structure of the population, using Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus as comparative case studies. A cohort-component forecasting model is employed to identify long-term demographic trends and examine differences in demographic trajectories across the selected countries. The results indicate that the demographic dynamics of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are characterised by continued population growth and a substantial proportion of young people, creating favourable conditions for realising the potential of a demographic dividend. Russia and Belarus, in turn, are characterised by an evolving age structure and demographic dynamics that increase the importance of policies supporting active longevity, human-capital development, family well-being, and balanced population development. The findings provide a basis for integrating demographic forecasting into long-term socio-economic planning and for further enhancing demographic policy in accordance with the specific demographic characteristics of each country.