Watching the wind, not the wrapper: DEFT+signals from scanning to anticipatory decisions

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to reposition and operationalise the DEFT framework (Drivers, Enablers, Frictions and Turners/Blockers) as a strategic anticipation architecture for decision-making under high uncertainty, digital transformation and artificial intelligence (AI). Design/methodology/approach The article proposes a functional distinction between forecasting, foresight and strategic anticipation; an operational definition of future signals in three stages, with wild cards as a distinct contingency threshold; and a DEFT + Signals pipeline transforming environmental scanning into anticipatory action packages, with mapping rules, prioritisation criteria, review triggers and an implementation profile. Findings The proposal governs a three-stage signal lifecycle without conflating evidential maturity with strategic importance, makes power, agency and institutionality non-optional, institutionalises phronesis as an organisational capacity produced by design and produces traceable decisions feeding the strategic choice cascade. Research limitations/implications The pipeline is demonstrated in a single methodological application, establishing executability and decision traceability; comparative validation against alternative approaches is the natural next step, set out here as a concrete research agenda. Practical implications Operational deliverables are defined: signal cards, staging criteria, DEFT mapping rules, inter-rater alignment protocols, decision logs, traceability metrics and a minimum anticipatory governance structure. Originality/value The paper extends the Big Picture framework (Saritas and Smith, 2011) with causal force-field governance and auditable decision thresholds, advances the FSSF (Kuosa, 2010) by connecting signal classification to the strategic choice cascade, and bridges DEFT, signals and anticipation with the SECI cycle and the Ba as organisational knowledge-creation space.