Integrating foresight and resilience strategies for a sustainable blue economy

Abstract

Climate change, biodiversity loss and socio-economic transformation are placing growing pressure on the sustainable development of the blue economy and on the marine and coastal systems that support it. Although resilience has become a central concept for addressing these pressures, its application has largely focused on reactive responses to disturbances, with limited attention to how environmental governance systems can engage proactively with long-term uncertainty. This article addresses this gap by examining how foresight can be integrated into resilience approaches to enable more adaptive and anticipatory governance. Based on an analysis of published studies, the article develops a framework that shows how foresight supports resilience-building through four core functions: detecting signals of change, exploring future possibilities, preparing for disruption and adapting to new conditions. These functions influence the anticipatory capacity of governance systems by linking knowledge of emerging trends and uncertainties with decision-making processes. The article highlights current limitations in practice, including the insufficient integration of social and behavioural dimensions, as well as institutional constraints that hinder the systematic use of foresight in policy contexts. Finally, the article offers actionable recommendations for embedding foresight within policy and planning processes to support a resilient blue economy.