A Licensing Audit of General Relativity in Late-Time Cosmological Channels

Abstract

Cosmological tests of general relativity are often summarized at the level of a probe or a data set: a result is said to be consistent with GR, to constrain modified gravity, or to disfavor a named alternative. This paper asks a narrower evidential question: what, exactly, do selected late-time cosmological channels license about specified target states once source results, auxiliary assumptions, domain transfer, and decision resolution are kept distinct? Using fixed source versions for multimessenger tensor-speed constraints, GWTC-5.0 modified gravitational-wave propagation, and DESI growth/lensing analyses, we separate SOURCE-RESOLUTION records from TARGET-STATE verdicts and bounded cross-channel synthesis. GW170817 supports an order-10⁻¹³ path-level robustness claim across the timing sensitivities discussed by the source and restricts named theory sectors in the LVK band, while transfer to low-frequency dark-energy EFT predictions remains OPEN. GWTC-5.0 supports the GR propagation point Ξ₀ = 1 across both published H₀ priors and reported 68.3%/90% intervals, while a specific large-ΔN RT model point remains OPEN at model level. In DESI+CMB-no-lensing, the 68% Σ₀ marginal shifts toward zero from the historical PR3 value 0.388 to 0.26 under CamSpec or 0.148 under LoLLiPoP-HiLLiPoP, while residual 68%-level offsets remain; the tighter full LoLLiPoP-HiLLiPoP+DESY3+DESY5-SN combination gives Σ₀ = 0.008 ± 0.045. The physical claim of non-zero late-time braiding independently of the declared auxiliary choices remains OPEN because the published braiding evidence is PR3-based and no current PR4 high-dimensional rerun exists. The contribution is a typed, source-traceable audit execution, not a new general theory of confirmation, model dependence, or statistical thresholds. Version note. Version 2.0 is a major reconstruction of the earlier preprint "A Validation-Licensing Audit of GR+ΛCDM in the Cosmological Regime" (v1). The earlier package-level PASS/OPEN architecture, automatic status inheritance, universal-regime framing, and associated dark-matter/dark-energy necessity inferences are withdrawn. The scope is narrowed to selected late-time GR-component channels, and the title has changed accordingly. Version 1 remains part of the public version history and should not be read as the operative argument of v2.0. Files. Main text (13 pp.) and Supplementary Material S1: Audit Register (source versions and locators, admissible variation sets, source-resolution and target-state records, revision history of the audit).