It is time to revisit the external determinants of state terror

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes are frequently influenced by external policies and transnational relationships when shaping domestic repression strategies. Existing empirical research has largely focused on demonstration and diffusion effects, emphasizing how governments emulate repressive practices observed abroad. Similarly, recent scholarship on authoritarian cooperation and regional organizations has argued that interstate cooperation strengthens authoritarian rule and facilitates repression through exchanges of information, expertise, resources, and strategic support. We distinguished theoretically between observational diffusion and cooperative interaction and examine empirically how each shapes state terror. Using spatial autoregressive combined models and global data on authoritarian regimes from 1947 to 2010, we found that demonstration via observational diffusion among institutionally similar regimes is generally associated with higher levels of state terror, whereas contemporaneous interdependence among such regimes is associated with lower levels. These results are broadly consistent across different specifications of the dependent variable. Our findings suggest a more nuanced relationship between interstate cooperation and repression: Cooperation may enhance authoritarian control while reducing reliance on the most extreme forms of violence. More broadly, the results indicate that diffusion-centered approaches may conflate observational learning with broader forms of authoritarian interdependence, thereby mischaracterizing the consequences of external influence for state terror.