The impact of online prices on marketplaces on people's inflation expectations

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of domestic marketplace prices on the population's inflation expectations. The analysis is based on a comparison of price movements on Wildberries, Ozon, and Yandex Market with official Rosstat data, using the APET dataset on the MPStats platform for 2023-2026. Particular attention is paid to how discrepancies between online prices and the consumer price index (CPI) influence the population's perception of inflation. InFOM survey data revealed a persistent gap between actual price movements and consumer expectations. The findings suggest that marketplaces do not cover the entire consumer basket; their data can provide early signals of disinflationary trends in certain product categories, but is not yet able to accurately reflect the population's inflation expectations. This opens the door to a more flexible regulatory communications policy and increased public trust in official statistics.