Estimation of the Risk of Asteroid Impact with the Earth Using the Initial Confidence Density

Abstract

Abstract A method has been developed for compressing part of the cloud of virtual trajectories of an asteroid. The method is based on the use of a probability density defined in the confidence region of the initial motion parameters. The method is designed to increase the number of points in the vicinity of collision points in the initial trajectory dispersion. To find these points, the method of conditional minimization of the confidence coefficient is used. The filling is carried out by constructing a six‑dimensional rectangle in the vicinity of the collision points, using the averaged value of the confidence probability density at these points. The method has been tested by estimating the probability of collision of three potentially hazardous asteroids approaching Earth.