Integrating Geospatial Indicators and Statistical Modelling to Assess Environmental Drivers of Faunal Diversity Responses in the Rohingya Influx of Bangladesh

Abstract

The southeastern coastal landscape of Bangladesh particularly the Cox’s Bazar district Ukhiya-Teknaf region is a globally important yet extremely fragile biodiversity zone in the Indo-Burma hotspot. Habitat conditions have changed dramatically due to rapid expansion of Rohingya settlements, forest fragmentation and climate-related environmental stresses. However, there is little understanding of the quantitative relationship between satellite-derived ecological changes and taxon-specific faunal responses. The study uses multi-source geospatial data and statistical modelling to evaluate the environmental drivers of vertebrate faunal diversity between 2015 and 2026. Vegetation, thermal, moisture and ecological indicators comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Transformed Difference Vegetation Index (TDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and Ecological Health Index (EHI) were derived from Sentinel-2A, Landsat-8/9 and MODIS datasets. These were integrated with secondary biodiversity data standardised from Cox’s Bazar South Forest Division, Teknaf Wildlife Sanctuary, Inani National Park, Nishorgo conservation databases, UNDP/UNHCR reports and published scientific research. The temporal study indicates a Substantial habitat transformation with a reduction of dense vegetation from 36,791 to 24,306 pixels (−33.9%) and an expansion of built-up by 121.2%, from 2015 to 2025. The maximum land surface temperature increased from 35.50°C to 48.99°C, indicating increasing thermal pressure. Correlation analysis, regression modelling, and multivariate analysis indicated potential associations between vegetation condition (NDVI/TDVI/EHI), heat stress (LST), moisture variability (ET), and faunal responses; however, statistically significant evidence for these relationships was limited. The observed patterns demonstrated comparably larger connections of mammal and bird responses with vegetation degradation and habitat fragmentation, whereas reptile and amphibian responses exhibited greater correspondence with heat and moisture variability. The integrated geospatial-statistical approach identifies biodiversity sensitive zones and provides scientific basis for habitat restoration and climate resilient conservation planning in rapidly changing tropical environments.