The effect of Russo—Ukrainian war on the aluminum stocks: an event study approach

Abstract

Abstract We examine how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected equity prices in the global aluminum industry. Using an event-study framework applied to daily stock returns of ten major aluminum producers across countries, we document heterogeneous market responses. European firms exhibit negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAARs), with losses of up to − 6.5%, whereas non-European producers record positive CAARs of up to 10.5% in the immediate post-event period, suggesting that some firms benefited from shifting supply conditions. Our findings demonstrate that geopolitical shocks are priced unevenly within commodity-intensive industries, with proximity as a key determinant of market reactions.