Electric vehicle deployment in India: implications for critical material demand and the role of recycling through 2060

Abstract

The rapid expansion of India’s on-road vehicle fleet creates opportunities and challenges for future energy systems, particularly for critical material requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). This study develops a bottom-up model of India’s passenger and commercial vehicle fleet through 2060, integrating powertrain transitions, battery chemistries, and recycling pathways. Vehicle sales rise from 5.8 million in 2005 to 61 million by 2060, with EVs reaching 18 million annual sales and 166 million vehicles in stock. Battery demand increases from ∼0.8 GWh in 2020 to 965 GWh by 2060, dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries in light-duty vehicles. Corresponding annual lithium net demand reaches ∼45 kt and graphite ∼783 kt, with net cumulative demand of ∼0.89 Mt and ∼12.8 Mt, respectively by 2060. The results suggest that material vulnerabilities remain higher in scenarios relying on primary material extraction, whereas scenarios incorporating recycling and less material-intensive battery chemistries exhibit lower material vulnerabilities.