Does the MOND Acceleration Scale Evolve? A Pre-Registered Decisive Measurement: the Deep-MOND Tully-Fisher Zero Point of One Lensed Rotator at z ~ 2.5, with a Two-Stage JWST/ALMA Funnel

Abstract

VERSION 3 (2026-09-18) supersedes version 2 of the same day: v2's PDF was the v1 build (a compile error dropped the figure) although its TeX carried the note; v3 carries the note and the figure in the PDF, with the figure file included. VERSION 2 NOTE (2026-09-18). The framework's a0(z) law is the pressure law a0^2 = kappa^2 G(-p_Q) derived from the action (vacuum exactly w = -1), and is flat; the -0.09 dex quoted in v1 for DESI DR2 dark energy used the density promotion the derivation rejects. DESI's w(z) taken at face value through the framework's own law, normalised at z = 0, gives a slight rise, +0.01 to +0.06 dex at z = 2.5 across the Pantheon+/DESY5/Union3 combinations, peaking at +0.10 dex near z = 1 and crossing zero near z = 3. A new figure places every law on one axis with its range (framework flat; face-value DESI; rejected density mapping; the H(z) law; the LambdaCDM-native emergent scale with its halo-mass and concentration-scatter range). The frozen decision rule (0.00 vs +0.33 dex at +/-0.13 dex) is unchanged; the discriminating window is z >= 2, which the pre-registered target already satisfies. The de Sitter-MOND framework ties the galactic acceleration scale to the dark-energy density, a0 = κ c √(G ρΛ), and therefore predicts that a0 does not evolve while Λ does not: the deep-MOND baryonic Tully-Fisher zero point is the same at z = 2.5 as at z = 0 to better than 1%. The ΛCDM-native alternative, an emergent acceleration scale set by halo structure, rises with redshift by a factor 2.1 at z = 2.5, a zero-point displacement of 0.33 dex in baryonic mass at fixed velocity or 20% in velocity at fixed mass. We show, from a twelve-constraint joint likelihood over every published high-redshift Tully-Fisher zero point and a 21-object ledger of candidate deep-MOND targets, that the existing archives cannot decide this: every published sample above z = 0.5 except one lensed-dwarf sample sits at 1.7-6.4 a0, where the zero point keeps only 7-18% of the a0 lever and is degenerate with disc-size evolution, and no known object passes the deep-MOND, rotation and lens-quality gates simultaneously. We therefore pre-register the measurement that would: one strongly lensed, rotationally supported galaxy at 2.3 < z < 2.9 with gbar(Rout) < 0.3 a0 on both a0 footings and at the upper end of its baryonic-mass uncertainty, screened for rotation with the JWST NIRSpec IFU (G235H/F170LP places Hα and [O III] in one setting for 2.32 < z < 3.83) before ALMA time is spent, then given CO(3-2) in ALMA Band 3 (1.98 < z < 3.12) for an independent gas mass and a second dynamical tracer. The decision statistic ΔBTFR = log Mb − 4 log Vf − C0, with C0 frozen from the local calibration, is scored against the two pre-specified values, 0.00 and +0.33 dex, at a required total uncertainty of 0.13 dex (20:1 discrimination). No drift nuisance may be introduced after the target is observed; a result inconsistent with both values counts against both. Every number is produced by a committed script in the public repository. AI-assisted research draft; not peer reviewed.