Weaponising insecurity: farmer-herder conflicts, electoral campaigns, and the limits on electoral outcomes in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections

Abstract

Conflicts between farmers and herders in Nigeria have had a profound impact on the country’s economy, politics, security, and humanitarian issues. Using instrumentalist theory, this paper, however, examines how the conflicts were used during the 2019 general elections campaigns, especially, by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It argues that despite the instrumentalization of the conflicts through campaign rhetoric, identity mobilisation, and party defections, there is no direct evidence that they determined the election outcomes, nationally. The paper, therefore, demonstrates how electoral fraud, characterised by vote buying, and result falsification intersected with electoral outcomes, thereby limiting the effects of campaign issues on electoral outcomes. This study relies primarily on qualitative evidence drawn from political speeches, media reports, participant observations as one of the returning officers, and secondary literature. The findings are presented in a constructive and accurate within ethically feasible manner.