Fueling the future of ethanol: An IETB-based multi-criteria analysis in leading producer countries and regions

Abstract

This study evaluates the readiness of ethanol programmes in five leading producer countries and regions (i.e., Brazil, the United States, the European Union (EU), India, and China) by integrating a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework. It combines coded qualitative and quantitative indicators into a transparent 0–10 scoring scheme based on IETB (institutional, economic, technological and behavioural) dimensions. Equal weights across the four dimensions serve as a normative baseline, and composite performance rankings and scores are computed with the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. AHP-style weighting scenarios were applied to individual dimensions to assess robustness, and the composite TOPSIS scores were compared with external benchmarks such as ethanol production volumes. Results showed that India and China are in the emerging stage, the EU is in an intermediate position, but Brazil and the United States remain consistent leaders. Used as a quantitative diagnostic tool, this framework has enabled the identification of country-specific priorities, bottlenecks, and strengths for ethanol and decarbonisation policies in transport fuels.