WTO ACCESSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: SECTORAL EVIDENCE FROM CHINA AND IMPLICATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

Uzbekistan is in the final stages of WTO accession. This study analyses China's post-accession sectoral data (2001–2024) using an OLS growth-rate model. Industrial and services growth are the dominant drivers of GDP growth (coefficients 0.426 and 0.398; p < 0.001), while transport is statistically insignificant (p = 0.334). A comparison of Central Asian WTO members shows mixed outcomes shaped by institutional readiness and commodity cycles. A SWOT analysis identifies reform momentum as Uzbekistan's principal asset and institutional capacity as the binding constraint.