Preregistration: Pantheon+ Lane–Seifert Likelihood-Architecture Switch

Abstract

Preregistration of a controlled likelihood-architecture switch analysis for Pantheon+ supernova cosmology. The primary objective is to determine how much the Bayes factor between timescape and spatially flat ΛCDM changes when the hierarchical Lane latent-variable architecture is replaced by the Seifert Tripp-only fixed-x1/c architecture, while holding prespecified analysis components fixed. The deposit contains the normative v0.2 preregistration master, rendered derivatives, the source-locked Delta Audit, computational-environment lock, input-hash record, and the v0.1 invariance diff. No numerical analysis of the locked data was performed before this deposit. Environment instantiation and all subsequent analysis steps are governed by the preregistered protocol. Any technically necessary environment substitution must be documented in a dated pre-analysis amendment before any locked-data run. Normative artifact:Preregistration_Lane-Seifert_Architecture-Switch_v0-2_DEPOSIT_MASTER.md Final deposit-container SHA-256:34f0a0a6dc2a8d8e51fdbe02558efa6c516e9c9e31b953415f19874ab727de38