Do negative alliance signals increase public support for nuclear weapons?

Abstract

For decades, the United States has sought to prevent its allies from acquiring nuclear weapons. To this end, the United States has attempted to reassure those allies that it is committed to defending them. Recent experimental work, however, suggests that increased alliance credibility does not necessarily decrease support for nuclear weapons among members of the public in allied countries. Building on this research, this article investigates the impact of signals of diminished, rather than increased, alliance credibility. Specifically, it explores the effects of such signals on public support for pursuing nuclear weapons in Japan, Germany, Poland, and South Korea. The findings suggest that the effects of negative alliance signals are substantively weak and inconsistent. The results are thus consistent with recent experimental work which finds that the link between alliance credibility and public support for nuclear weapons is not straightforward.