The Winner Takes It All? The Impact of Mathematics Olympiad Elimination on Kazakh High-Achieving Students’ Expectancy-Value Beliefs and Career Aspirations

Abstract

Mathematics Olympiads play an important role in developing mathematically gifted students, yet little research has examined how participants interpret the experience of elimination from these highly selective competitions. This qualitative study investigates how mathematically high-achieving students interpret early elimination and how these experiences shape students’ motivation and career aspirations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten Olympiad participants and four coaches in Kazakhstan. Data were analyzed using constellation mapping, which visually represented relationships among themes emerging from participants’ narratives. Findings reveal three interconnected domains shaping students’ responses to elimination: expectancy-value dynamics, career aspiration trajectories, and support structures that sustain motivation. While some students experienced elimination as a threat to academic identity, others reframed it as an opportunity for growth or redirected their interests toward adjacent Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) pathways. Such findings highlight the importance of mentoring, social belonging, and competition design in supporting resilience among mathematically talented students navigating competitive talent-development systems.