Assessment and Zoning of Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk in Henan Province, China

Abstract

Agricultural drought poses a serious threat to grain production and regional agricultural sustainability. Accurate assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk (ADDR) and identification of its spatiotemporal differentiation are essential prerequisites for implementing precise risk management. Based on natural disaster risk theory, this study developed an exponent-weighted ADDR assessment model from four dimensions: hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk caused by insufficient mitigation capability (RIMC). The model was used to assess and zone ADDR in Henan Province from 2011 to 2022, analyze its spatiotemporal characteristics and interannual variability, and examine the interannual consistency of the assessment results using provincial-level statistical records of agricultural drought losses. The results showed that: (1) The ADDR assessment results were generally consistent with the statistical records of agricultural drought losses in terms of interannual variation, and further correlation analyses showed a significant positive association between the two. (2) ADDR and its constituent components exhibited pronounced spatial differentiation across Henan Province. ADDR showed an overall decreasing pattern from the southwest to the northeast, with Nanyang, Luoyang, Xinyang, and Jiaozuo identified as high-risk areas. Hazard showed a similar decreasing trend from the southwest to the northeast; vulnerability generally exhibited a west-high and east-low pattern; exposure showed the opposite pattern, with higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west; and high-RIMC areas were concentrated in western and southwestern Henan. (3) Temporally, both ADDR and hazard exhibited pronounced interannual fluctuations, vulnerability also showed certain interannual variation, exposure varied only slightly among years, and RIMC showed an overall year-by-year declining trend. ADDR showed high interannual variability in Xinyang and Hebi. The findings provide a scientific basis for zoning-based management of agricultural drought risk, precise allocation of drought-mitigation resources, and enhancement of drought resilience in agricultural systems in Henan Province.