UAE–Israel Ties 5 Years After the Abraham Accords: From Warm Peace to Cold Stability

Abstract

This essay is a positive and critical analysis of how the UAE–Israel relations have evolved after the Abraham Accords were signed in September 2020 and the likely scenarios over the next 5 years. Bilateral ties have thus far evolved from early optimism into a cautious, pragmatic partnership driven by shared strategic and economic interests. While robust economic ties and security cooperation continue to advance, with further progress through minilateral arrangements such as I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the partnership faces significant tension from the Gaza conflict and broader Palestinian issues. UAE public skepticism and regional fallout from recent wars, especially the 12-day war in 2025 and the US–Israel–Iran war in 2026 that had serious repercussions on the Gulf country, have further complicated ties. Overall, the relationship, first designated as “warm peace,” is witnessing “cold stability,” marked by continued strategic collaboration, discreet diplomacy, and limited public engagement. While there is no immediate threat of retreat from the Accords, the intensity of future bilateral ties, from a UAE perspective, could ebb or flow depending on how solutions evolve to vexed regional problems.