The effect of armed conflict, climatic variations, and food insecurity on internally displaced populations in Somalia

Abstract

Droughts and conflict-related crises have frequently affected Somali states over the past three decades. Analyzing the drivers of displacement during crisis can provide critical insights for governmental and humanitarian efforts aimed at mitigating these effects. The study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with population movement in Somalia. An ecological analysis was conducted using secondary panel data stratified by month and district. The analysis covered the entire population of Somalia between 2016 and 2023. The number of new internally displaced persons (IDPs) in each district and month was used to establish the outcome. Armed conflict, combined drought index (CDI), food insecurity, and water prices were the risk factors included. Negative binomial mixed-effects regression models, with district included as a random effect, were used for the analysis. Between 2016 and 2023, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9.1% to 10.52%. Conflict, food insecurity, and water prices were significantly associated with internally displaced persons. These findings highlight the importance of addressing conflict and economic stressors to reduce the number of IDPs in Somalia.